Consumer confidence surveys are important private sector surveys even though economists view them as lagging indicators. Their importance lies in the confirmation of spending patterns and as consumption in developed countries may amount to 60%-70% of GDP, knowing how it is behaving is important for financial markets’ forecasts for GDP growth rates, which in turn flow into demand for credit and inflation rates.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is one of two US consumer sentiment indices, the other being the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. The Conference Board’s index is based on perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as expectations of business conditions, employment and income six months into the future.
The latest release from the Conference Board’s September survey indicates US consumers are about as optimistic as they can possibly be. The reading came in at 138.4, up from August’s revised reading of 134.7 and well up on September 2017’s comparable figure of 120.6. It is the highest reading since October 2000 and it is not far from the highest reading recorded in the series.