US CPI headline rate up, core down

18 May 2016

The headline inflation rate came in at 0.4%, a rise from the March figure of 0.1% and in line with the 0.4% rise expected. Energy prices were substantially responsible for the index’s rise, with petrol jumping 8.1% over the month. Clothes, vehicles and non-energy commodities fell. The year-to-date CPI figure rose to 1.1% from 0.9%, and it is now back above February’s comparable figure of 1.0%.

Core inflation, which was seen as a long-run measure of price increases across the economy, continued to edge down. The annual rate hit a short-term peak at 2.3% in February before slipping to 2.2% in March and then 2.1% in April. Core inflation strips out the more volatile food and energy components.

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ANZ did not have much to say about the results other than to note “the core measure of inflation (which covers 80% of the CPI) has now been at 2% or higher for six months” while Westpac said, “US CPI, industrial production, capacity utilisation and house building all beat estimates.” NAB took a different tack and looked at the implications for the personal consumption expenditure figure (PCE). “On an annual basis, core CPI dipped to 2.1% from 2.2% in March and it would suggest there is downside risk to the core PCE deflator (the Fed preferred inflation measure) due for release on the last day in May. “

The CPI figures, along with statements from FOMC members Williams and Lockhart alluding to the next few meetings being ”live”, sent treasury yields higher. 2 year bond yields rose from 0.79% to 0.83% and 10 year bond yields rose from 1.75% to 1.77%.