US consumer confidence collapsed in late 2007 as the US housing bubble burst and the US economy went into recession. By 2016, it had clawed its way back to neutral and then went from strength to strength until late 2018. After a dramatic drop through December and January, confidence levels bounced in February. This latest survey has reversed much of that bounce.
The latest Conference Board survey indicates US consumers are not quite as optimistic as February’s survey suggested. The latest reading came in at 124.1, a considerable fall from February’s reading of 131.4 but still at an elevated level in historical terms. Most of the fall was attributable to US households’ views of current business and labour market conditions.
The consensus expectation prior to the report was for a reading of around 132. However, US bond yields still finished the day higher. By this time, 2-year Treasury bond yields had gained 3bps to 2.26% while 10-year and 30-year yields had each increased by 2bps to 2.42% and 2.88% respectively.