US consumer confidence collapsed in late 2007 as the US housing bubble burst and the US economy went into recession. By 2016, it had clawed its way back to neutral and then went from strength to strength until late 2018. Since then, measures of consumer confidence have oscillated within a fairly narrow band at historically high levels. Recent figures have continued in this manner despite headlines of international discord and weaker business surveys.
The latest Conference Board survey indicates US consumers remained very optimistic even as trade and geo-political tensions come and go. August’s reading came in at 135.1, a small fall from July’s final figure of 135.8 and still quite close to its all-time high. Consumers’ views of present conditions with regards to the business environment and the labour market improved but the short-term outlook of both was slightly less than at the time of the July survey.
Westpac described the result as “a resilient reading in the face of escalating trade tensions and volatile markets.”