Summary: US quit rate continued to fall; job openings down again; total separations also down; accommodation & food sales continued to be hit hardest; NAB economist says numbers “pre-date” latest job market improvement.
The number of US employees who quit their jobs as a percentage of total employment increased slowly but steadily after the GFC. It peaked in August 2018, stabilised and then remained largely unchanged through the remainder of 2018 before it hit a new peak in July 2019. It then tracked sideways until virus containment measures were introduced in March.
Figures released as part of the most recent JOLTS report show the quit rate has continued to fall. 1.4% of the non-farm workforce left their jobs voluntarily in April, a substantially lower rate than March’s revised figure of 1.8%.
In a near-repeat of the March report, quit numbers increased in the “Mining & logging” sector but all other sectors experienced declines, with the largest monthly falls coming from the “Accommodation & food services”, Professional and business services” and “Retail trade” sectors. Overall, the total number of quits for the month decreased from March’s revised figure of 2.789 million to 1.786 million.
April’s non-farm payroll report indicated average hourly pay had jumped, possibly the result of fewer lower-paid jobs relative to higher paying ones. The May report saw a fall in average hourly pay from April’s revised figure of USD$30.04 to USD$29.75, with a corresponding fall in the annual growth rate from 8.0% to 6.7%.
Total vacancies at the end of April fell by 965,000, or 16.1%, from March’s revised figure of 6.011 million to 5.046 million, driven by decreases in the “Professional and business services” and “Health care and social assistance” sectors. Reduced openings in the “Retail trade”, “Accommodation and food services” and “Arts, entertainment and recreation” sectors also played significant roles. Overall, 15 out of 19 sectors experienced fewer job openings than in the previous month
Total separations during the same period decreased by 4.755 million from March’s revised figure of 14.643 million to 9.888 million. The fall was overwhelmingly led by the “Accommodation and food services” sector, where there were 3.001 million fewer separations than in March. However, separations still increased in 7 of the 19 sectors.