Summary: US quit rate unchanged; job openings up by 2.4%, total separations up 5.4%; job openings rise “an encouraging sign”; non-farm payroll report suggests job creation moderating.
The number of US employees who quit their jobs as a percentage of total employment increased slowly but steadily after the GFC. It peaked in March 2019 and then tracked sideways until virus containment measures were introduced in March 2020. The quit rate plummeted as alternative employment opportunities rapidly dried up but then recovered quite quickly over the next six months.
Figures released as part of the most recent JOLTS report show the quit rate remained unchanged. 2.2% of the non-farm workforce left their jobs voluntarily in October, the same rate as in September. The largest source of additional quits arose from the “Health care and social assistance”, while the “Professional and business services” sector experienced fewer quits. Overall, the total number of quits for the month increased by 18,000 from September’s revised figure of 3.074 million to 3.092 million.
April’s non-farm payroll report indicated average hourly pay had spiked in that month, possibly the result of fewer lower-paid jobs relative to higher paying ones. Subsequent months’ figures then saw falls in average hourly pay, with a corresponding fall in the annual growth rate from 8.0% in April to 4.4% in November.
Total vacancies at the end of October increased by 158,000, or 2.4%, from September’s revised figure of 6.494 million to 6.652 million, driven by a 122,000 rise in the “Health care and social assistance” sector. 34,000 fewer openings in the “Transportation, warehousing, and utilities” sector provided the single largest offset. Overall, 12 out of 18 sectors experienced more job openings than in the previous month.
Total separations during the same period increased by a net 263,000, or 5.4%, from September’s revised figure of 4.844 million to 5.107 million. The rise was led by the “Federal Government” sector, where there were 109,000 more separations than in September. Separations increased in 15 of 18 sectors.
ANZ analyst Rahul Khare said rise in job openings represented “an encouraging sign against the backdrop of rising coronavirus cases, and mirroring the improvement seen in many of the business surveys.” However, he noted the figures are seen as a lagging indicator and November’s non-farm payroll report suggested “job creation is moderating.”