US leading index down 0.6% in July; no recession signal

Summary: Conference Board leading index down 0.6% in July, decline larger than expected; CB: six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead; short-term US Treasury yields up, longer-term yields down; rate-cut expectations largely unchanged; CB: weakness widespread among non-financial components; expects annualised growth of 0.6%, 1.0% in Q3, Q4. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index composed of ten sub-indices which are thought to be...

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