The “quits” rate time series produced by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is a leading indicator of US hourly pay. As wages account for around 55% of a product’s or service’s price in the US, wage inflation and overall inflation rates tend to be closely related. Former Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen was known to pay close attention to the quit rate.
Figures released as part of the most recent JOLTS report show the quit rate remained unchanged after revisions. During September, 2.4% of the non-farm workforce left their jobs voluntarily, the same rate as in August. Quit rates were highest in the “accommodation and food services” and “educational services” sectors while the “wholesale trade” and transportation, warehousing, and utilities” sectors recorded the largest falls. Even though the quit rate remained unchanged, the total number of quits actually fell from 3.65 million to 3.60 million.
Total job openings also fell. Total vacancies during September fell back from August’s revised figure of 7.293 million to 7.009 million, led by falls in the “professional and business services” and “finance and insurance” sectors. Increased openings in the “health care and social assistance” and “accommodation and food services” sectors provided some offset. As a percentage of the non-farm workforce, job openings increased from August’s revised figure of 4.9% to 4.7% in September.