US retail sales have been trending up since late 2015. While there have been patches of weakness along the way, later months’ figures have rebounded to higher levels. After reaching an annual growth rate of 6.6% in July 2018, subsequent sales figures formed a downtrend which brought the annual rate below 2.0% by the end of the year. The latest January report has provided a rebound of sorts.
According to the latest “advance” sales numbers released by the US Census Bureau, total retail sales increased by 0.2% in January, or slightly higher than the flat result which had been expected and a good deal higher than December’s revised figure of -1.6%. On an annual basis, the growth rate increased to 2.3% after recording 1.6% in December after revisions.
ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said, “Markets will be looking for January’s lift to be sustained, with strength in the labour market and rising real wages expected to support consumption. Rates are close to neutral and the Fed has made it clear they do not want to quash the expansion, with cycles often ending on the back of aggressive tightening. Until they feel comfortable with the domestic and international environment, on-hold guidance will remain in place.”