Summary:
Our cash market expectations data reveals a consistent downward trajectory in expected cash rates over the next year, with projections gradually declining from the current 3.6% to below 3.00% by September 2026.
Australia’s economy grew 0.6% in the June quarter, beating forecasts and lifting annual growth to 1.8%. The upside surprise was driven by strong household consumption, underscoring resilience despite global uncertainty. The figures complicate the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook. After three cuts this year, further easing is less certain given solid demand, a tight labor market, and sticky inflation. Bond yields rose to six-week highs, while the Australian dollar edged higher. Analysts now see reduced scope for aggressive cuts, with at most one more expected this year or in 2025, as the RBA balances growth with inflation risks.
Looking ahead, RBA Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak in Perth, where markets will seek further clues on the central bank’s stance. While growth has surprised to the upside, the RBA must balance stronger domestic demand against ongoing global risks, including U.S. trade tariffs.
Interest rates on Australian savings accounts tracked by YieldReport vary widely. The highest rates are offered by Ubank Save Account at 5.00%, ING Savings Accelerator at 4.70%, and Rabobank Premium Saver at 4.65%. Major banks generally offer rates between 4.00% and 4.45%, including AMP Saver, CBA NetBank Saver, and NAB iSaver. Lower rates are seen in accounts such as Macquarie CMA (2.00%), RAMS Saver (1.40%), and ANZ Premium (0.05%). Mid-range options include ME Online Savings and Up Savers Account at 3.85%. Overall, online and specialty savings accounts tend to offer higher returns, while traditional or tiered accounts remain comparatively low.
Figure 1: Market Expectation on Cash Rate
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Product Interest
Rate p.a.Notes AMP Saver Account 4.45% Up to 4.45% pa variable rate on balances up to $500,000. Applies for customers that meet the eligibility criteria. ANZ Premium 0.05% $10,000 - $249,999 ANZ Progress Saver 3.15% Make at least one deposit of $10 or more in a month, make no withdrawals (including transfers), or incur any fees, charges in the month. Arab Bank Online Savings 4.55% On balances of $250,000 to $499,999 Bankwest Hero Saver 4.00% Variable Hero rate on eligible balances up to $250,000.99. CBA NetBank Saver 4.45% 1.55% p.a.standard variable rate. 2.90% p.a.fixed bonus margin for the first 5 months on your first NetBank Saver. CBA Goal Saver Account 4.45% 0.30% p.a.standard variable rate2. 4.15% p.a.bonus variable interest rate3. Heritage Online Saver 4.00% get a 4 month Bonus Intro Rate* available for new members on balances up to $100,000. ING Savings Accelerator 4.70% Open a Savings Accelerator from9 June 2025and roll higher with our4.70% p.a.variable kick starter offer. This includes a0.75% p.a. variable kick starter rate for the first 4 monthson balances up to $500,000. After that, roll on with our3.95% p.a.variable ongoing rate. Macquarie CMA 2.00% Minimum $5,000 ME Online Savings 3.85% Bonus interest applies to balances up to $500,000. Make at least four Visa Debit card purchases per month using your linked SpendME account. NAB iSaver 4.40% We’ll add this bonus rate for the first four months if you have not held a NAB iSaver account in the last 12 months (on balances up to $20 million NAB Reward Saver 4.10% This is the total rate (variable base rate + variable bonus rate) you could earn on your NAB Reward Saver account if you meet the variable bonus rate conditions. Rabobank PremiumSaver 4.65% On balances to $250,000. Balance increased by $200 a month. RAMS Saver Account 1.40% On balances to $500,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month with no withdrawals. Suncorp Growth Saver 4.30% Earn 4.30% p.a. Growth Saver bonus interest each month you grow your net balance by $200 or more (excluding interest) and make no more than one withdrawal. ubank Save Account 5.00% All you need to do is have a Spend account and deposit $500+ per month into any Spend, Bills, or Save accounts (not including internal transfers) to get the bonus interest rate. Easy. Up Savers Account 3.85% To qualify for the bonus interest rate in a calendar month, make 5 successful purchases using your Up, 2Up, Essentials or 2Up Essentials debit card, Apple Payâ„¢, Google Payâ„¢ or other digital wallets in the same month. ATM transactions or transfers are not included. To qualify for the bonus interest rate in June, make 5 successful purchases using your Up, 2Up, Essentials or 2Up Essentials debit card, Apple Payâ„¢, Google Payâ„¢ or other digital wallets before 7pm AEST/ADST on the last day of June. You can’t qualify for the bonus interest rate after 7pm AEST/ADST on the last day of June. Westpac eSaver 4.25% Fixed rate for the first 5 months for new eSaver customers.