Summary: Cash rate expectations for 2024 move lower; cash rate now expected to average 3.885% in February 2025; 3-month BBSW steady; no changes to surveyed ADI cash rates.
Expectations moved this week in a manner which suggested the path of the cash rate will be slightly lower over the next twelve months in comparison with its expected path at the end of the previous week. Contracts at the end of the week implied the cash rate would remain reasonably close to the current rate of 4.32% and average 4.315% through March, 4.30% in April and 4.275% in May. However, August contracts implied 4.165%, November contracts implied 4.01% and February 2025 contracts 3.885%, 44bps less than the current rate.
Since March 2020, the RBA has not enforced its cash rate target by completely draining excess liquidity from the banking system. As a result, the actual cash rate has been several basis points below the target rate. Contract prices reflect expectations of the average actual cash rate in a given month, not the target rate, although the former is obviously related to the latter.
The ABS’ monthly CPI report was released midweek. The CPI rose by 3.4% over the year to January, unchanged from December. The trimmed mean measure slowed from 4.0% to 3.8%.
The December quarter report on construction work done was also released. Work done increased by 0.7%, largely as expected.
January’s preliminary retail sales report was published the next day and it indicated retail spending had increased by 1.1% compared to the previous month, less than the expected 1.5% rise.
Additionally, total private credit increased by 0.4% in January, in line with expectations. The annual growth rate again increased slightly, from 4.8% to 4.9%.
Capex rose by 0.8% in the December quarter and by 7.9% compared to the December 2022 quarter. The latest capex estimate (Estimate 5) for 2023/24 financial year was $177.7 billion, 4.0% higher than Estimate 4.
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3-month BBSW is a useful benchmark for cash rates and it finished the week unchanged at 4.34%. The RBA’s target for the overnight lending rate between banks is also 4.35% but actual overnight interbank loans are being negotiated at 4.32%, 3bps below the target but 7bps above the RBA’s exchange settlement account (ESA) rate for ADI deposits with it.
There were no changes made by deposit-taking institutions in our survey of cash account interest rates this week.
CASH ACCOUNTS
| Product | Interest Rate p.a. | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| AMP Saver Account | 5.40% | Min. monthly $1,000 dep. Limit $250,000. |
| ANZ Premium | 0.05% | $10,000 - $499,999 |
| ANZ Progress Saver | 4.25% | Make at least one deposit of $10 or more in a month, make no withdrawals (including transfers), or incur any fees, charges in the month. |
| Arab Bank Online Savings | 1.00% | On balances of $250,000 to $499,999 |
| Bankwest Smart eSaver | 2.45% | On balances up to $500,000.99 with no withdrawals in that month |
| BOQ Fast Track Saver | 2.75% | $1000 minimum monthly deposit. On balances up to $250,000, over part the Base Rate of 0.05% p.a. applies |
| BoQ Bonus Interest Savings | 2.75% | Bonus interest is paid into your account when you limit your withdrawals to a maximum of one per month |
| CBA NetBank Saver | 2.35% | 2.40% p.a. fixed bonus margin for the first 5 months on your first NetBank Saver |
| CBA Goal Saver Account | 4.90% | At least 1 deposit required; balance at end of month must exceed balance at start of month. |
| Great Southern Bank | 4.20% | No bonus conditions |
| Heritage Online Saver | 3.45% | $1 or more, bonus intro rate 1.45% (promotional 4 month rate on new accounts up to $100,000) |
| ING Savings Accelerator | 4.70% | $150,000 and over |
| Macquarie CMA | 3.00% | Minimum $5,000 |
| ME Online Savings | 4.25% | Have both Online Savings Account and Everyday Transaction Account. On balances up to $250,000. Make at least four "tap & go" purchases per month. |
| NAB iSaver | 2.00% | Bonus rate 2.65% for the first four months when you open your first NAB iSaver account |
| NAB Reward Saver | 5.00% | make at least one deposit on or before the second last banking day of the month and no withdrawals during the month |
| Rabobank PremiumSaver | 5.10% | On balances to $250,000. Balance increased by $200 a month. |
| RAMS Saver Account | 1.40% | On balances to $500,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month with no withdrawals. |
| Suncorp Growth Saver | 5.05% | Minimum $200 deposit each month and no more than 1 withdrawal |
| ubank Save Account | 5.10% | On a combined balance of up to $250,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month into Spend or Save accounts. |
| Up Savers Account | 4.35% | Make 5 successful purchases using your Up or 2Up debit card or digital wallets in a month. |
| Westpac eSaver | 1.10% | 4.25% p.a. for the first 5 months for new Westpac eSaver customers |
| Westpac Reward Saver | 5.00% | Make a deposit to the account and ensure account balance is higher at the end of the month than the beginning. Keep your account balance above $0 at all times. |