Summary:
Inflation softening still supportive: Q2 CPI inflation eased into the 2–3 % target zone, reinforcing market expectations of a 25 bp RBA rate cut in August, though the tone shifted toward more gradual easing.
Markets are fully pricing in an August RBA rate cut, and projecting a gradual easing trend into mid‑2026, possibly guiding the cash rate down to around 3.1–3.3%.
Despite yield rises this week, expectations that disinflation trends persist helped anchor sentiment, while economic strength tempered the magnitude of any rally.
The first and second-order effects of US tariffs are yet to be known, and it is understandable why the RBA is somewhat cautious in its monetary policy stance.
Figure 1: Swaps on RBA Rate Cuts
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Product Interest
Rate p.a.Notes AMP Saver Account 4.70% Up to 4.70% pa variable rate on balances up to $500,0001. Applies for customers that meet the eligibility criteria. ANZ Premium 0.05% $10,000 - $249,999 ANZ Progress Saver 3.40% Make at least one deposit of $10 or more in a month, make no withdrawals (including transfers), or incur any fees, charges in the month. Arab Bank Online Savings 4.55% On balances of $250,000 to $499,999 Bankwest Hero Saver 4.10% Variable Hero rate on eligible balances up to $250,000.99.# BOQ Fast Track Saver 2.25% ($1,000 deposited + 5 eligible transactions for per month) BoQ Bonus Interest Savings 5.10% Bonus interest is paid into your account when you limit your withdrawals to a maximum of one per month CBA NetBank Saver 4.65% 1.90% p.a. standard variable rate, 2.75% p.a. fixed bonus margin for the first 5 months on your first NetBank Saver CBA Goal Saver Account 4.45% 0.30% p.a. standard variable rate,4.15% p.a. bonus variable interest rate Great Southern Bank 5.64% Owner occupier, principal & interest, LVR 70% or less. Includes discount on new and additional lending. Min. loan amount applies Heritage Online Saver 4.35% Manage your savings online with our high interest savings account. Plus, get a 4 month Bonus Intro Rate* available for new members on balances up to $100,000. ING Savings Accelerator 4.70% from 9 June 2025 and roll higher with our 4.95% p.a. variable kick starter offer.This includes a 0.75% p.a. variable kick starter rate for the first 4 months on balances up to $500,000. After that, roll on with our 4.20% p.a. variable ongoing rate. Macquarie CMA 2.25% Minimum $5,000 ME Online Savings 3.85% Bonus interest applies to balances up to $500,000. NAB iSaver 4.65% This is the total rate (standard variable rate plus fixed bonus margin rate) you could earn for the first four months, if you have not held a NAB iSaver in the last 12 months (on balances up to $20 million). NAB Reward Saver 4.35% This is the total rate (variable base rate + variable bonus rate) you could earn on your NAB Reward Saver account if you meet the variable bonus rate conditions. Rabobank PremiumSaver 4.80% On balances to $250,000. Balance increased by $200 a month. RAMS Saver Account 1.40% On balances to $500,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month with no withdrawals. Suncorp Growth Saver 4.55% Minimum $200 deposit each month and no more than 1 withdrawal ubank Save Account 4.85% 5.5% on first $100,000, 5.0% on next $150,000; applies only on amounts upto $250,000. Minimum $500 deposit each month into Spend or Save accounts. Up Savers Account 4.35% Make 5 successful purchases using your Up or 2Up debit card or digital wallets in a month. Westpac eSaver 4.50% 3.15% p.a. for the first 5 months for new Westpac eSaver customers Westpac Reward Saver 4.50% Make a deposit to the account and ensure account balance is higher at the end of the month than the beginning. Keep your account balance above $0 at all times.