Summary: Cash rate expectations over next 12 months move materially lower over the week following the release of CPI data the prior week; the market is currently pricing in three 25 basis point cuts over the course of 2025, with the December expectation being 3.5%; 3-month BBSW down 3bps over the course of the week; material changes to surveyed ADI cash rates as well as the broader term deposit market (see Term Deposit section).
3-month BBSW is a useful benchmark for cash rates and it finished the week 3bps lower at 4.21%. The weekly downward move extends a distinct trend that began on 18 December, when the 3-month BBSW was at 4.47%.
We note that 12 economists are predicting a 25bps rate cut on February 18 while 5 economists are steadfast in their conviction that the RBA will keep rates on hold. There is 2 opposing dynamics at play here. In favour of a cut was the benign and declining inflation figures released in January. This led a dozen economists, including National Australia Bank and Westpac, quickly revised their predictions, certain of a rate cut arriving in February.
The opposing dynamic and supportive of rates remaining on hold is the uncertainties that stem from Trump’s trade war.
From a market perspective, it remains confident the RBA will lower its 4.35% cash rate at its meeting later this month, pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps rate cut from the RBA on 18 February to 4.1%. If this does not happen the market is pricing in a rate cut in April as a certainty.
| Product | Interest Rate p.a. | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| AMP Saver Account | 0.052 | Min. monthly $1,000 dep. Limit $250,000. |
| ANZ Premium | 0.0005 | $10,000 - $499,999 |
| ANZ Progress Saver | 0.041 | Make at least one deposit of $10 or more in a month, make no withdrawals (including transfers), or incur any fees, charges in the month. |
| Arab Bank Online Savings | 0.0435 | On balances of $250,000 to $499,999 |
| Bankwest Hero Saver | 0.046 | On balances up to $250,000.99 with no withdrawals in that month |
| BOQ Fast Track Saver | 0.0275 | $1000 minimum monthly deposit. On balances up to $250,000, over part the Base Rate of 0.05% p.a. applies |
| BoQ Bonus Interest Savings | 0.0545 | Bonus interest is paid into your account when you limit your withdrawals to a maximum of one per month |
| CBA NetBank Saver | 0.0235 | 2.40% p.a. fixed bonus margin for the first 5 months on your first NetBank Saver |
| CBA Goal Saver Account | 0.049 | At least 1 deposit required; balance at end of month must exceed balance at start of month. |
| Great Southern Bank | 0.043 | No bonus conditions |
| Heritage Online Saver | 0.0345 | $1 or more, bonus intro rate 1.45% (promotional 4 month rate on new accounts up to $100,000) |
| ING Savings Accelerator | 0.047 | $150,000 and over |
| Macquarie CMA | 0.0275 | Minimum $5,000 |
| ME Online Savings | 0.0425 | Have both Online Savings Account and Everyday Transaction Account. On balances up to $250,000. Make at least four "tap & go" purchases per month. |
| NAB iSaver | 0.02 | Bonus rate 2.65% for the first four months when you open your first NAB iSaver account |
| NAB Reward Saver | 0.05 | make at least one deposit on or before the second last banking day of the month and no withdrawals during the month |
| Rabobank PremiumSaver | 0.0535 | On balances to $250,000. Balance increased by $200 a month. |
| RAMS Saver Account | 0.014 | On balances to $500,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month with no withdrawals. |
| Suncorp Growth Saver | 0.0505 | Minimum $200 deposit each month and no more than 1 withdrawal |
| ubank Save Account | 0.05 | 5.5% on first $100,000, 5.0% on next $150,000; applies only on amounts upto $250,000. Minimum $500 deposit each month into Spend or Save accounts. |
| Up Savers Account | 0.0435 | Make 5 successful purchases using your Up or 2Up debit card or digital wallets in a month. |
| Westpac eSaver | 0.011 | 4.25% p.a. for the first 5 months for new Westpac eSaver customers |
| Westpac Reward Saver | 0.05 | Make a deposit to the account and ensure account balance is higher at the end of the month than the beginning. Keep your account balance above $0 at all times. |