| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.99 | 4.04 | -0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.46 | 4.50 | -0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.10 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.25 | 4.27 | -0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.30 | 4.27 | 0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.47 | 4.45 | 0.02 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 26 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell across the curve. There were no notable economic reports released on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.81%, 53bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring two 25bp cuts between now and next October.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields declined while longer-term yields rose moderately. Economic data for the day included The Conference Board’s November consumer confidence survey, S&P/Cashe Shiller October Home Price Index, October new home sale figures, Richmond Fed November manufacturing activity index and minutes of the FOMC’s November meeting.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.515% for the month and thus a roughly-even chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.96%, 62bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
