| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.91 | 3.97 | -0.06 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.37 | 4.43 | -0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.71 | 4.76 | -0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.23 | 4.23 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.26 | 4.26 | 0.00 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.44 | 4.44 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 28 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell almost uniformly across the curve. Economic reports released on the day included September private new capital expenditure figures and Estimate 4 of 2024/25 capex plans.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.82%, 52bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring two 25bp cuts and a small chance of a third one between now and next October.
US MARKETS
US markets closed.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.515% for the month and thus a solid chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.925%, 66bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
