| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.76 | 3.56 | 0.20 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.22 | 4.08 | 0.14 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.49 | 4.49 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.99 | 3.92 | 0.07 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.03 | 3.96 | 0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.30 | 4.25 | 0.05 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 7 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally jumped on a day in a manner similar to movements of US Treasury yields on Friday night. Domestic economic reports of note on the day were limited to the Melbourne Institute’s September Inflation Gauge release.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a modest chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.72%, 62bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts and a even chance of third one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose across a slightly flatter curve. Data releases of note on the day were limited to August consumer credit figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.665% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.535%, 129bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
