Summary:
Short-term Australian yields showed minor mixed movements, suggesting a stable interest rate outlook. The 1-month and 1-year maturities each rose by 1 basis point to 3.55% and 3.54%, while the 3-month and 6-month terms dipped slightly by 1bp to 3.64% and 3.88%, respectively. Medium-term yields (3–5 years) edged down 1bp to 3.58% and 3.95%, indicating modest easing in market expectations for future tightening. Longer-term bonds were steady, with the 10-year at 4.32% and the 15-year unchanged at 4.53%, suggesting markets continue to price in a higher-for-longer rate environment.
Over the month, yields drifted higher across most maturities, particularly at the short end, reflecting expectations that policy easing will be delayed amid persistent inflation. The 6-month tenor recorded the largest monthly increase (+11bps), followed by 1-year (+7bps), while the 10-year eased 1bp. This slight steepening at the short end versus the long end points to reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts and a mildly flattening yield curve.
Overall, the curve remains anchored, with moderate adjustments across maturities indicating confidence in the Reserve Bank’s steady policy stance and the economy’s soft-landing trajectory, though investors remain cautious about potential volatility in upcoming inflation and employment data.
Bank Bill Swap Rates
TERM TO MATURITY CLOSING RATE Δ WEEK Δ MONTH 1 month 3.55 0.01 0.02 3 months 3.64 -0.01 0.06 6 months 3.88 -0.01 0.11 SWAP RATES.csv
TERM TO MATURITY CLOSING RATE Δ WEEK Δ MONTH 1 year 3.54 0.01 0.07 3 years 3.58 -0.01 0.04 5 years 3.95 -0.01 0.04 10 years 4.32 -0.01 -0.01 15 years 4.53 0 -0.03 - Exhibit 1: Australian 3Y/10Y Bond Yield
