Yield Curve

17 January – 21 January 2022

Summary: ACGB gradient flatter; US Treasury curve gradient also flatter.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became a little flatter as higher yields at the short end outran those at the long end. By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had narrowed by 3bps to 56bps and the 3-year/20-year spread had lost 5bps to 106bps.

The gradient of the US Treasury curve also became flatter. The 2-year/10-year spread lost 8bps to 75bps over the week while the 2 year/30 year spread shed 10bps to 107bps. The San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 8bps lower at 159bps.

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