Yield Curve

10 January – 14 January 2022

Summary: ACGB gradient flatter; US Treasury curve gradient also flatter.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became flatter as yields rose at the short end and declined at the long end. By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had narrowed by 3bps to 59bps and the 3-year/20-year spread had lost 4bps to 111bps.

The gradient of the US Treasury curve also became flatter. The 2-year/10-year spread lost 7bps to 83bps over the week while the 2 year/30 year spread shed 9bps to 117bps. The San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished unchanged at 167bps.

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