01 July – 05 July 2024

Summary: Slope of ACGB curve slightly steeper; US Treasury curve gradient generally less negative.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became slightly steeper as yields rose again. By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had added 1bp to 28bps while the 20 year spread finished 3bps higher at 59bps.

 

The gradient of the US Treasury curve generally became less negative again this week.  The 2-year/10-year spread gained 4bps to -32bps while the 2 year/30 year spread increased by 8bps to -12bps. However, the San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 10bps lower at -107bps.

 

To find out more about the yield curve and its usefulness, click here or here.