8 January – 12 January 2024

Summary: Slope of ACGB curve steeper; US Treasury curve gradient generally less negative.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became steeper as yields rose. By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had added 2bps to 43bps while the 3/20 year spread finished 6bps higher at 75bps.

The gradient of the US Treasury curve became less negative this week. The 2-year/10-year spread gained 17bps to -19bps while the 2 year/30 year spread finished 25bps higher at +5bps. However, the San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 8bps lower at -141bps.

To find out more about the yield curve and its usefulness, click here or here.