13 January – 17 January 2025

Summary: Gradient of ACGB curve flattens; US Treasury curve gradient moves haphazardly.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became flatter as yields rose modestly at the short end while longer-term yields declined. By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had lost 7bps to 58bps while the 20-year spread shed 6bps to 101bps.

Movements of the gradient of the US Treasury curve were haphazard.  The 2-year/10-year spread tightened by 5bps to +34bps while the 2-year/30-year spread added 2bps to +58bps.  The San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 13bps lower at +32bps.

To find out more about the yield curve and its usefulness, click here or here.