6 January – 10 January 2025

Summary: Gradient of ACGB curve steepens; US Treasury curve gradient steepens.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became steeper as yields rose moderately. By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had gained 6bps to 65bps while the 20-year spread added 8bps to 107bps.

The gradient of the US Treasury curve also steepened.  The 2-year/10-year spread widened by 7bps to +39bps while the 2-year/30-year spread added 3bps to +56bps.  The San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 15bps higher at +45bps.

To find out more about the yield curve and its usefulness, click here or here.