Summary: ACGB curve almost unchanged or steeper depending on measure used; US Treasury curve less negative.
The gradient of the ACGB yield curve either remained almost unchanged or became steeper depending on the measure used. By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had slipped 1bp to 45bps while the 3/20 year spread finished 9bps higher at 90bps.
The traditional measures of the gradient of the US Treasury curve became less negative. The 2-year/10-year spread added 3bps to -50bps over the week while the 2 year/30 year spread gained 18bps to -26bps. However, The San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 29bps lower at -34bps.
To find out more about the yield curve and its usefulness, click here or here.