Yield Curve

11 July – 15 July 2022

Summary: ACGB curve flatter; US Treasury curve more negative/flatter.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became flatter as longer-term Australian yields fell.  By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread and the 3-year/20-year spread had both lost 9bps to 28bps and 52bps respectively.

The various measures of the gradient of the US Treasury curve all became more negative/flatter as US yields rose at the very front of the curve while longer-term yields fell moderately . The 2-year/10-year spread moved further into inverted territory as it shed 18bps to -21bps while the 2 year/30 year spread shed 18bps to -4bps over the week.  The San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 59bps narrower at 58bps.

To find out more about the yield curve and its usefulness, click here or here.

Click for previous reports