Yield Curve

4 July – 8 July 2022

Summary: ACGB curve flatter; US Treasury curve flatter, 2/10 spread negative.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became flatter as Australian yields fell.  By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had lost 8bps to 37bps while the 3-year/20-year spread narrowed by 5bps to 61bps.

The various measures of the gradient of the US Treasury curve all became flatter as US yields rose. The 2-year/10-year spread moved into inverted territory as it lost 9bps to -3bps while the 2 year/30 year spread shed 14bps to 14bps over the week. However, the San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 5bps narrower at 117bps.

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