Yield Curve

28 August – 1 September 2023

Summary: Slope of ACGB curve a little flatter; US Treasury curve gradient less inverted.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became a little flatter as yields fell again. By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had declined from 31bps to 28bps while the 3/20 year spread finished 1bp lower at 63bps.

* September futures

The gradient of the US Treasury curve became less inverted this week. The 2-year/10-year spread gained 16bps to -69bps while the 2 year/30 year spread finished 22bps higher at -67ps. The San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 1bp higher at -126bps.

To find out more about the yield curve and its usefulness, click here or here.

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