Yield Curve

21 August – 25 August 2023

Summary: Slope of ACGB curve flatter; US Treasury curve gradient more inverted.

The gradient of the ACGB yield curve became flatter as yields fell. By the end of the week, the 3-year/10-year spread had decreased from 34bps to 31bps while the 3/20 year spread finished 3bps lower at 64bps.

* September futures

The gradient of the US Treasury curve became more inverted this week. The 2-year/10-year spread shed 16bps to -85bps while the 2 year/30 year spread finished 23bps lower at -79ps. The San Francisco Fed’s favoured recession-predicting measure, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, finished 6bps lower at -126bps.

To find out more about the yield curve and its usefulness, click here or here.

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